Reddit – Dive into anything

Obviously, from a statistical point of view, most people buy high and sell low, that is what moves the prices in the market, people buying and selling. If you get your information from the same sources as most of the people, and reach the same conclusions, you are going to make the same decisions, “you are not stuck in traffic beating the market, you are the market”. Related concept: alpha.

However, statistics does not explain why you, precisely you, always buy high and sell low. Statistics tells us about probabilities, but this is a certainty, how is it possible?

Discarding scams and rug pulls, where the reasons are obvious, for respectable projects that run for years, we can see that they keep reaching all time highs periodically, either every 4 years or with greater frequency. If you zoom out, in the long term and on average, the value is always going up. If it is always going up, that means:

1. Any time your FOMO leads you to buy, it is higher than previous values. The price was lower before, if you could just tell your past self to invest earlier…

2. Any time your paper hands prevent you from HODLing, it is lower than later values. The price kept going up after the dip, if you could just tell your past self to HODL and buy the dip…

3. Ultimately, the average value (increasing monotonically) is aligned with the arrow of time, and the only way around it is a time machine.

HTH.