BE 300 Final Cheat Sheet.pdf – RISK & UNCERTAINTYManaging Risk more variance, less desirable mitigate: reduce risk exposure or transfer EV of uncertain | Course Hero
RISK & UNCERTAINTY
Managing Risk
more variance, less desirable mitigate: reduce risk exposure or transfer EV of uncertain outcome
= Σp
i
W
i
, where p = probability and W = value of one outcome
Risk Attitudes
neutral pay actuarially fair or less, indi±erent with
variability (only care about highest EV) averse pay premium and likely more (don’t know how much more), care about variability and EV
loving pay EV or less, prefers uncertainty over certain if options have same EV
FAILURES IN FRANCHISING
Risk and Value of Info
WTP for extra info = EV pro²ts w/ full info – EV pro²ts w/o full info; If have full info, will make pro²ts with option that has highest value
ASYMMETRIC INFO
Adverse Selection
Occurs when 1 party is better informed about
risks or quality than the other
and
before parties sign a contract or make an agreement
Death Spiral
As premium rises, relatively healthy want to leave. This makes premium rise
more and pool of existing insured get more expensive. And cycle continues.
Market
Failure
Party with less info (can be buyer or seller) has to base WTP or SP on average
quality risk. Over time, quality of goods for sale goes down, risk in pool goes up, prices
respond accordingly causing market to collapse Lemons Asymmetric info means that
quality is worse than it would be w/ complete info – bad drives out good; DWL – Sellers of